Quickview – Selling at NCAV

I did a quick post on the returns of some of my exited net-net positions back in April (https://streetsofvalue.com/2018/04/02/quickview-exited-net-net-positions/).  My results were very satisfactory.  However I sold each of these positions when they “mean-reverted” to net current asset value.  In hindsight, I realise that this was philosophically flawed.  While a small sample size, the proof of the pudding is in the eating; here’s the returns of my previous holdings since I sold them:

Name Symbol Original Sell Date Return % Return (€) %
AS Company SA ASCO:ATH 12/04/2017 96.64 96.64
Autostrade Meridionali SpA AUTME:MIL 18/05/2017 9.58 9.58
Ekter SA EKTER:ATH 21/07/2017 36.71 36.71
Genesis Land Development Corp GDC:TOR 23/08/2017 19.44 17.04
Hakuto Co Ltd 7433:TYO 24/08/2017 0.96 0.85
Odawara Auto-Machine Mfg Co Ltd 7314:TYO 14/12/2017 -15.91 -14.02
Shinko Shoji Co Ltd 8141:TYO 22/12/2017 -23.46 -20.53
Taitron Components Inc TAIT:NAQ 27/04/2017 100.38 87.24
Average 28.04 26.69

 

Ouch! My only saving grace was that Shinko Shoji Co Ltd was by far the largest position in my portfolio at the time.  Interestingly, selling at NCAV worked out nicely for J-nets.  But overall, it’s clear that blindly selling at NCAV was an error.

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